Bangalore International Centre had arranged a talk on “Global impact of China’s slowdown” by Dr. Donghyun Park, Principal Economist, Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, Asian Development Bank, Phillippines, onTuesday, 9th 2016 at 6.00 PM. The talk was chaired and moderated by Amb. C V Rangananthan, Former Ambassador of India to China.
Through a power point presentation, Dr. Park indicated that China’s economic growth has slowed down tangibly since the global financial crisis due to both internal and external factors. While China’s spectacular growth benefited the world economy in the past, its deceleration will have an adverse effect. His empirical analysis suggested that the effect would be is substantial, especially on East Asian countries with close economic ties with China. Furthermore, the impact will be more pronounced if the slowdown is sharper. In addition to the slowdown, China’s structural transformation from an export- and investment-led economy to a domestic demand- and consumption-oriented economy will affect the structure of its imports – e.g. reduced imports of machines and increased imports of cosmetics. He also felt that countries with relatively limited exports of consumption goods to China and relatively large exports of parts and components to China will suffer a decline in their total exports to China. Overall, China’s slowdown will have a tangible but uneven impact on the world economy. Countries that adjust well to China’s structural change can mitigate the adverse impact of China’s slowdown.
Ambassador Ranganathan who moderated the discussion and chaired the event made several pertinent and perceptive observations about the emerging scenario and agreed with Dr. Park that the spectacular growth of China was unsustainable in the long run and that the growth pattern is now approaching its natural equilibrium.
The Q & A session after the talk was informative and interesting.